From Arab Spring to an Iranian Summer

By Maryam Rajavi,

Posted on Huffingtonpost on June 14, 2013

The winds of change that swept through the Middle East are nearing, of all places, Iran. As the Presidential Elections get underway on Friday, there is evidence the strength of the nation's theocracy is weakening. Late last month the unelected watchdog Guardian Council disqualified the two-time former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's protégé, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei.

The surprising decision by supreme leader Ali Khamenei marks a turning point in Iran's political developments. By just pushing officials out of power, Khamenei has unquestionably proved that there is no hope for solution and order within the regime. Rafsanjani, the regime's number two authority for more than three decades, actually devised Khamenei's own unexpected rise to power in 1989 after the death of Khomeini, the founder of the "Islamic Republic." His disqualification has left even the most avid regime supporters shocked and confused.

Khamenei needs to get rid of all elements that seem too timid or compromising in order to consolidate power and to unite the ranks behind the regime's increasingly aggressive policies. This will allow him to more effectively suppress any internal opposition, expand the regime's aggressive behavior regionally and advance its nuclear weapons program for self-preservation. In 2005, at the height of his power, he confidently placed Ahmadinejad at the helm of the executive branch, sidelining rivals and holding sway over almost all of the regime's major power centers.

The nationwide protests in 2009, however, significantly undermined his agenda. Millions of angry Iranians took to the streets to demand regime change. Even though the uprising was viciously suppressed, it still put a dent in Khamenei's authority and deepened cracks at the top. Even Ahmadinejad began to challenge Khamenei directly.

Now in a significantly weaker position and faced with growing internal dissent, Khamenei seeks relief from the prospect of his regime's collapse by embarking on successive purges that have chipped away at the theocracy's already shrinking power base. But, this has accelerated the forces to overthrow the regime.

To make matters worse, these internal developments are happening while Tehran's main ally in Syria is falling and its proxy government in neighboring Iraq is undergoing a crisis. Compounded with the pain of international sanctions, rampant corruption and mismanagement has forced Rafsanjani into making the shocking public revelation recently that the nation is $700 billion in debt. Nationwide, the Iranian people, especially the youth, are not abandoning democratic hopes, and the regime's security officials are scared of the looming threat of popular uprisings.

The removal of the main organized opposition group, the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) from the State Department's foreign terrorist organizations list, following a major legal and political campaign, has only worsened Tehran's anxiety. To be sure, the designation was a major impediment in the Iranian Resistance's efforts to bring about democratic change in Iran.
The regime's fate is sealed. Clearly, the Iranian people will boycott the illegitimate elections on June 14 as they have done in the past. But the West, whose feckless response to the 2009 protests enabled the clerics to crush the democracy movement, must change course. Otherwise, the rest of the world would be forced to negotiate with a regime that lacks legitimacy.

We keep hearing that all options are on the table with regards to Iran. Surprisingly, however, recognizing the right of the Iranian people to unseat the clerical regime and bring democracy to Iran is still off the table.

Change will have to come from both outside the regime, and by the Iranian people. This is the least costly and most beneficial strategic solution to the Iranian crisis since it will ensure, as the Iranian Resistance has called for in its platform, a democratic, secular and non-nuclear Iran.

Maryam Rajavi is President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a broad-based coalition of opposition parties and figures that advocates a democratic, secular and non-nuclear republic in Iran